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A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. Pre-performance Lobby events. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. I quit voting once out of the union.. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. I find that hard to believe. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. 0:00 0:00. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. His morals also include being honest, and he is bothered by what he sees as lies coming from both candidates. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. By Cara Ding. It was easy. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. Here's why. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. The morale of the people up there is bad. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. Right now, its horrible. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. SACRAMENTO . Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. Its horrible. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." I dont listen to the news. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. He says Democratic Gov. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Bremer County, Iowa If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. I just want Trump in. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Theres significant variability among them though. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. In addition to Florida Gov. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. 'I Should Start Voting'. I dont think you should take that away from me.. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. Thus it would appear that bellwether. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Required fields are marked *. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? To accept cookies, click continue. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. This includes personalizing content and advertising. He is his own worst enemy.. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. Our roads need to be fixed. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. Im not happy with the way things are now. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Republican Gov. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. Your email address will not be published. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Please read our comments policy before commenting. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. We need election reform.. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. But thats not the picture I look at. I am under that impression. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. It will cycle through. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in.